The New York Mets were expected to have one of the best offenses in the game but have been the worst offense in the MLB. What's wrong with them, and can their struggling stars turn their season around?
The New York Mets were supposed to be a great hitting team this year. It was hard to say that wouldn't be true with this lineup that they could unleash daily:
1B Pete Alonso
2B Jeff McNeil
3B J.D. Davis
So far, the problem with this lineup has been that their best hitter can only be in the lineup once every five days! Ace Jacob DeGrom is actually hitting .391, so it's more about DeGrom being good than everyone else is bad in this case. DeGrom has been carrying the Mets while healthy; while he's scored four runs as a batter, he's only given up four earned runs as a pitcher! His 0.62 ERA would be history-making if he can continue his insane pace. Meanwhile, fellow starters Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker have also been surprisingly good, with ERAs under 2.50.
The pitching clearly has not been the problem. They've somehow pulled the Mets to a 29-23 record, three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East. The problem really is that Jacob DeGrom is a pitcher, and he can't lead off for the Mets every day to help their struggling lineup unless he turns into a two-way player. This is an issue because the rest of the Mets have been atrocious, both in real life and in fantasy baseball. So, what's wrong with their hitters, who will bounce back, and who will continue to disappoint?
Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, and Michael Conforto have disappointed mostly due to injuries. Obviously, it's not their fault, yet it's hard for the Mets to be good when half of their lineup is hurt. McNeil was useless (.242, 3 HR) before he got hurt on May 17 due to a hamstring strain after playing 33 games. Conforto was also bad (.230, 2 HR) in 31 games until he was placed on the IL along with Jeff McNeil for the same reason. They'll both likely be out until late June. On the other hand, Nimmo (.318, 21 games) and Davis (.390, 14 games) were playing well, but both will remain on the injured list until at least late June as well. It's hard to predict what these hitters will do in fantasy for the rest of the season since they're injured, but their value has gone down due to the missed time.
Like McNeil, James McCann has been subpar this year even though he's only two years removed from an All-Star appearance. He's hitting .228 with six homers in his first season with New York after signing with them for four years and $40.6 million. Those numbers will likely rise a little bit, but he's not an appealing option in fantasy right now. He's only scored 56 points, which is the twentieth best number among all catchers! His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is slightly higher than average, but his xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) is higher than his actual wOBA. Those balance each other out and suggest that his results have been earned and that he hasn't been unlucky. He also has poor strikeout and plate discipline metrics (how often he swings and misses, how often he chases pitches out of the zone, his strikeout and walk percentage). In addition, even though he was an All-Star in 2019 and was pretty good in 2020, his career numbers show that he was probably overpaid by the Mets and overdrafted by fantasy managers. I think McCann will continue to struggle, and he'll probably end up with about 15 home runs and a .240 batting average- not good enough to warrant him being rostered in ESPN standard leagues.
Dominic Smith has been almost literally average because he has an OPS+ of 99, while 100 signifies a league-average hitter. He's hitting .260 with four home runs and three strikeouts for every walk (surprisingly, he also has two stolen bases). All of this is roughly average, along with his advanced statistics. However, that's also not good enough to be on fantasy rosters, since his average production has only netted him 69 fantasy points, tied for 36th among first basemen and 42nd among only left fielders. Smith should be dropped by now, for I'd predict he'll stay around .260 with 15 home runs for the rest of the year, which is not good enough to be owned over a younger player with a higher ceiling.
Francisco Lindor has been regarded as the most disappointing player in the MLB by many due to his terrible start to this year. He signed an extension with the Mets for 10 years and $341 million after being traded from Cleveland this offseason- for good reason! Lindor is a four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and a two-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop. He was usually drafted in the top 20 overall and the top five shortstops. Despite that, Lindor has been atrocious through the first third of this season since he's hitting a measly .218 with only 5 home runs. Still, his BABIP is around .270 (not terrible, but below average) and he's making plenty of hard contact while not striking out often and drawing walks. Even though he's only scored 98 fantasy points (somehow more than his aforementioned teammates), I think he'll turn it around sometime soon. I would expect him to end up with a batting average closer to .250 with a home run total in the twenties, and he should be in the top 8-12 range at shortstop. He is an excellent buy-low candidate since he's been performing poorly but definitely has the potential to turn it around.
In contrast to Lindor, Pete Alonso has not been a disappointment this year. The power-hitting first baseman has actually been good as the Mets' most valuable offensive player (besides Jacob DeGrom). He leads the team in home runs (albeit with only seven) and is second in batting average among players who have played in at least 30 games. The "Polar Bear" has a 116 OPS+ (he's been 16% above an average hitter), and he's hitting the ball extremely hard, as he's in the top 3% of hitters in exit velocity. For some reason, even though he's actually playing well, he's scored fewer fantasy points than Lindor and is outside the top 15 for first basemen. So, Alonso is a great player to target in trades. Fantasy managers see the low number of points, but he's actually hitting the ball hard and has just been unlucky. I expect him to finish the year over a .260 batting average with 30 home runs and over 90 runs and RBIs, placing him firmly in the top-10 first basemen.
Overall, the Mets have struggled, but once they can overcome health, bad luck, and unexpected poor performance, they should cruise to a division victory, and making a move for one of their buy-low hitters may carry fantasy managers to success as well.
Special thanks to Baseball-Reference and ESPN for statistics.
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