It's Time to Add Jon Gray

Jon Gray may not be the most trustworthy option in fantasy baseball, but does he warrant a spot on fantasy teams due to his recent performance?

First of all, Jon Gray pitches for the Colorado Rockies. That's never a good sign. This is because pitching for the Rockies means pitching at Coors Field, the worst park for pitchers in the league. Surprisingly, that hasn't been a huge problem for Gray or the Rockies this year. The Rockies have a 4.30 ERA at home, which is only six points higher than their 4.24 ERA on the road (although neither are good- they're both bottom-third marks). Jon Gray has also overcome the Coors Field effect, with a 3.14 ERA at home and a 4.54 ERA on the road, which is a 3.68 ERA (3.99 FIP) combined. That's really good for a Rockies pitcher!

Most of his other numbers are lackluster. He's striking out less than a batter per inning, he has a 1.215 WHIP, and he's 6-6. All of those scream "average pitcher." However, digging a little deeper shows that maybe his recent performances are legitimate. His average exit velocity is 88.1 mph- good, but not great. His expected ERA is 3.57, nine points lower than his actual ERA- good, but not great. His expected batting average against is .223, but he also walks 9.5% of the batters he's faced- good, but not great. This is what Jon Gray is at this point- a good, but not great pitcher- and that's all we need him to be. Fantasy managers aren't picking him up to be the ace of their staff.

In order to finish making this point, we do need to take an obligatory look at Gray's spin rate since the foreign substance crackdown to see if there's a reason for concern in that department. And, it turns out there isn't. His spin rates are nearly exactly the same since June 3 compared to before it. In addition, to take a look at his individual pitches, since June 3, he has a .115 expected batting average off his slider- that's a great pitch! He also has lowered his expected batting average on his curveball from .415 to .110 since the foreign substance rules were announced- that's been a great pitch lately as well!

In fantasy, Gray has been a reliable option as of late. Over his last five starts, he has scored a combined 89 fantasy points (20, 18, 13, 22, and 16) due to his 2.40 ERA, and he's been the SP20 on the ESPN Player Rater over the last 30 days. Due to all of this, he has proved himself enough to be picked up in all fantasy leagues for now since he can be a reliable starting pitcher every week. Jon Gray is here to stay!