The closer has the lowest amount of job security on a baseball team. That's just a fact. Bullpen arms are very volatile, and the closer on a team changes regularly year-to-year, and even game-to-game. Some managers don't want their best arm closing, and some managers are flexible with who closes games. Some managers are willing to pick a closer and stay with them for the whole year, and some managers change their closer regularly based on performance. Many relievers only pitch one inning at a time and in close games, so one bad outing can change the perspective on that pitcher. These are all reasons why closers shouldn't be prioritized in fantasy baseball. In leagues where saves (not holds) are the main source of points for relief pitchers, managers can try to hunt down sources of those saves, but they can change all the time based on managers, injuries, or performance. We live in a world where Heath Hembree is getting saves for the Cincinnati Reds, so fantasy managers just have to expect the unexpected with bullpen arms. Today, I'll take a look at two of the more interesting bullpens in the league on two teams fighting for the same division- the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants.
While the Padres may not seem like they have an interesting closer situation, it might be more complex than it looks. Current closer Mark Melancon has a league-leading (five more than anyone else!) 28 saves since his team is clearly very good at winning one-to-three run games, and he's been closing since the beginning of the year. He also has a 2.19 ERA and a 168 ERA+ (68% better than league average). However, that's it for positive statistics about Melancon. First of all, about that ERA- it's grown over 1.5 points since I wrote about his 0.66 ERA in June and how that was completely unsustainable. In fact, since that article on June 10 (which also happened to be right before the new foreign substance rules were enforced), Melancon has allowed eight earned runs in 13 2/3 innings, which is a 5.27 ERA.
Regression was obviously going to happen (not even Jacob DeGrom can have that low of an ERA), but expect his ERA to continue to rise. Melancon has a 4.15 FIP (fielding independent pitching, so it's like a more accurate version of ERA that doesn't penalize pitchers for poor defense), and he has a 4.15 expected ERA according to Baseball Savant. His expected wOBA is nearly 50 points higher than his current wOBA, and his .254 expected batting average against is much higher than his actual .221 batting average against. Melancon also doesn't get enough swing-and-misses to be elite, with only 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. One good thing is that he doesn't allow hard-hit balls, for his average exit velocity is in the top 5% of the league. So basically, Melancon is getting really lucky because he induces a lot of soft contact and he hasn't had to pay for it for the most part.
Despite not having a lot of enticing other options, I think the Padres are eventually going to have to make someone like Emilio Pagan, Drew Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Craig Stammen, or even a bullpen arm (Craig Kimbrel?) that they acquire at the trade deadline. I don't expect Mark Melancon to be closing for this team by September, and I think he will definitely fall out of the top 10-15 relief pitchers from his current RP6 position (in points leagues). Trade him away now while he still has value as a top closer because he won't stay that way for long.
Meanwhile, the Giants have mainly had two pitchers close for them- Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers. McGee has a 2.58 ERA (3.25 FIP) with 19 saves, and while he should regress towards his 3.11 xERA since he allows much more hard contact than Melancon, his 10.9 K/9 should also make sure he remains a good option for San Francisco. His teammate Rogers has a 2.05 ERA (3.74 FIP, 2.70 xERA) with 10 saves, and while the submariner has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (13.9%) out of 367 qualified pitchers, he is among the best in the league at getting soft contact (he's literally the best in the league at not allowing "barrels"), so he is also a good option to close games for the rest of the year.
The main issue with McGee and Rogers in fantasy isn't in the statistics, but it's that they are both on the same team. They have each had temporary stretches as the closer this year, but manager Gabe Kapler keeps switching between the two. Since that June 10 article where I also wrote about McGee, McGee has been the closer in most situations and he's allowed only seven baserunners and no earned runs in twelve innings along with two wins and seven saves. However, even though McGee has been so great, he pitched a perfect eighth inning in a one-run game against the Dodgers on Tuesday while Rogers pitched the ninth in a save situation but gave up three runs without getting an out (walk, walk, three-run home run), and he took the loss. Furthermore, despite his blowup the night before, Rogers got the save on Wednesday in a 4-2 win over the Dodgers, and McGee was nowhere to be seen. So, it seems like Rogers is the closer- for now.
There's also one more variable with this Giants bullpen besides the battle between McGee and Rogers- the trade deadline. Contenders can always use an extra bullpen arm, and experts have speculated that the Giants are likely interested in getting one. If the Giants trade for someone like the aforementioned Craig Kimbrel, he would likely be the closer from then on, and McGee and Rogers would be relegated to a set-up role. But, other not-as-good-as-Kimbrel relief pitchers like Tyler's brother Taylor or Richard Rodriguez of the Pirates might become the set-up man for McGee/Rogers or become a co-closer with them!
The Giants bullpen plans for the rest of the season are very unclear, and that's the problem for fantasy managers. For now, McGee and Rogers should both be universally rostered, for McGee will likely be a top-10 relief pitcher and Rogers could as well (it will be hard with his strikeout numbers, so he'll have to get a lot of saves to do that). Even though their fantasy baseball outlook is very murky right now, they're both good pitchers no matter what, so it's worth it to hold on to them at this point- and at least they're not Heath Hembree.
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