Alex Reyes, Matt Barnes, and Mark Melancon have been among a group of relief pitchers who have had great starts to the year. Should you cash in now, or expect their strong performances to continue?
1. Josh Hader, MIL
2. Aroldis Chapman, NYY
3. Liam Hendriks, CWS
4. Edwin Diaz, NYM
5. Raisel Iglesias, LAA
6. Ryan Pressly, HOU
7. Kenley Jansen, LAD
8. James Karinchak, CLE
10. Trevor Rosenthal, OAK
In baseball, the closer is a very volatile position. It can take only a matter of weeks for a closer to lose their job, and it's very easy for unexpected players to shine and established veterans to struggle. That's why it's unwise to draft relief pitchers high in fantasy baseball. Not only do they produce fewer points throughout the season than starting pitchers, but they also have the lowest job security out of any role in the major leagues. Fantasy managers did draft accordingly, as only the top three on that list of the top ten relief pitchers with the highest average draft position were drafted in the top 100.
As expected, many of those pitchers have let their fantasy teams down this season, including Rosenthal (who hasn't even thrown a pitch) and Brad Hand. In fact, the majority of those pitchers have let their teams down to a lesser extent, for they haven't pitched well enough to be in the top 10 after one-third of the season, which looks like:
1. Josh Hader
2. Aroldis Chapman
3. Mark Melancon, SD
4. Alex Reyes, STL
5. Liam Hendriks
6. Matt Barnes, BOS
7. Craig Kimbrel, CHI
8. Tejay Antone, CIN
9. Kenley Jansen
10. Jake McGee, SF
Clearly, Hader and Chapman have been excellent, as expected. But, this list is filled with names that weren't on the first one- some young guys, some veterans, and maybe even a future hall of famer. Out of those six names, who is worth keeping or seeking out to add to your fantasy team, and who will soon drop off this list?
Mark Melancon, the league leader in saves with 19, has been a very pleasant surprise this year. The Padre in his twelfth season has an 0.66 ERA with only two earned runs scored against him. That sounds great, but his FIP is 3.22- over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA! That means he's been very lucky (supported by the fact that he's also allowed over one baserunner per inning). The biggest reason he's likely to fall off this pace soon is the strikeouts. He only has 24 in 27.1 innings, which is not a strikeout rate you'd expect for an "elite closer." He's in the bottom fifth of the league in getting swings and misses, and the bottom third for strikeouts and walks.
Buy or Sell? Sell. Melancon's been great and provided plenty of value, but he won't be able to keep allowing this low amount of runs and gaining high amounts of fantasy points with his strikeout rate. His fantasy scores and ERA should be able to convince an opponent to overpay for him, and closers are replaceable (and less important in general), so Melancon should be traded away (and not traded for) if possible.
Like Melancon, Alex Reyes, a right-hander for St. Louis, also has a sub-1 ERA (0.90). Unlike Melancon, Reyes gets strikeouts (12.6 per 9 innings). There's just one problem- walks. Reyes is in the first percentile of all MLB pitchers for walk rate, meaning that he is in the top 1% of pitchers in terms of walking people a lot! He has 27 walks in 30 innings, which is almost one walk every inning! That's also the fifth most walks in the NL, and that includes starting pitchers who have pitched almost three times as many innings as Reyes!
Buy or Sell? Sell. Reyes' success with that walk rate is unsustainable. It's amazing that he's second in the league in saves and has only given up three earned runs this year when he's issuing free passes every game. Don't expect Reyes to stay on the top-10 relief pitchers list by the end of the year because his walk rate along with Giovanny Gallegos lurking behind him should guarantee extreme regression for Reyes.
In spring training, the most interesting thing about the Red Sox was supposed to be their "closer battle" between Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. However, it didn't end up being a battle at all, for Barnes took the job and ran away with it through the first two months of the year. The April AL Reliever of the Month (along with Melancon in the NL) hasn't been as great at run prevention as Reyes and Melancon with a 2.73 ERA on eight earned runs, but unlike them, his FIP is over a run lower than his ERA, suggesting he's on track to improve. He is great with both strikeouts and walks (16.1 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings), and according to Baseball Savant, he's been literally the best in the league in multiple metrics about how batters have fared against him:
Buy or Sell? Buy. Except for allowing a little too much hard-hit contact, Barnes hasn't shown any weaknesses in his game so far. If you can trade someone like Reyes or Melancon in a one-for-one deal, go for it. Other players might see Barnes having a much higher ERA, but he also has much better underlying stats. Expect Barnes to continue his breakout season and finish it in the top 5 closers.
A former teammate of Barnes, Craig Kimbrel has had a bounce-back year for the Chicago Cubs. The seven-time All-Star has an 0.72 ERA with a 1.35 FIP, so there should be at least a little bit of regression coming soon. Like Barnes, he's great with strikeouts and walks (14.9 K's and 2.9 walks per nine innings), and his advanced metrics are all amazing (his chart looks nearly the same as Barnes').
Buy or Sell? Buy. Everything I said for Matt Barnes applies here since they've been very similar this year. The Cubs are firmly in contention this year, so Kimbrel likely is safe as the closer in Chicago. He'll likely end up in the top 5 (or close to it) as well.
I'll also quickly mention the last two new names on the top-10 list:
Tejay Antone- The surprising Reds pitcher has a 1.41 ERA this year with 4 saves.
Buy or Sell? Sell. While he may be the best pitcher in the Reds bullpen, their closer situation has been a mess all year with six different players getting saves for the team (and they haven't had a lot of save situations). Antone will not be in the top-10 relief pitchers by the end of the year (unless your league includes holds) and is not someone to trust to carry a fantasy relief staff. If it's possible, try to trade him away, maybe for a closer that has put up fewer points but has a proven track record as the closer (i.e. Diaz, Iglesias, Pressly).
Jake McGee- The 34-year-old Giant has a 3.76 ERA and 12 saves.
Buy or Sell? Sell. McGee is currently sharing the closer role with teammate Tyler Rogers and will see a decrease in his save opportunities due to that. He also probably won't be in the top-10 relief pitchers by the end of the year, but his value was at its peak a few weeks ago before he started to struggle and became a co-closer. Keep him rostered for now, but if he continues to give up runs and not get save chances, it's fine to drop him.
Special thanks to Baseball Reference, ESPN, and Baseball Savant for statistics.
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