Player A: 46 games played, 10 games missed, .264 batting average, .828 OPS, 5 home runs, 29 runs scored, 20 RBI, 5/8 stolen bases/attempts, 131 fantasy points (default ESPN scoring), 118th on the ESPN Player Rater
Player B: 51 games played, 4 games missed, .286 batting average, .796 OPS, 7 home runs, 32 runs scored, 24 RBI, 4/4 stolen bases/attempts, 134 fantasy points, 69th on the ESPN Player Rater
In February of 2020, the Red Sox traded the 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts along with former Cy Young winner David Price to the Dodgers in exchange for outfielder Alex Verdugo, the Red Sox current #2 prospect, Jeter Downs, and catcher Connor Wong. Boston fans were outraged, for the Red Sox were trading away their beloved face of the franchise mostly for financial relief. Betts later signed a 12 year, $365 million contract with Los Angeles, which will likely mean he plays the rest of his career there. During the short season last year, Betts was stellar, hitting .292 with 16 HR and finishing second only behind Freddie Freeman in NL MVP voting. Meanwhile, Verdugo had a breakout season for Boston, by hitting .308 while also getting down-ballot MVP votes.
However, this year has been very different from the past. If you haven't already guessed, Player A from the blind comparison above is Mookie Betts, and Player B is Alex Verdugo. Their statistics are very similar, with Verdugo's being slightly better than Betts, who was a consensus top-5 draft pick in fantasy this year and drafted about 100 picks earlier than Verdugo. This was obviously unexpected, so why are Mookie Betts and Alex Verdugo playing at about the same level so far?
First of all, this isn't all about Betts' struggles. Verdugo has played well for Boston so far. He hits second in their lineup- for some unexplained reason, the second basemen always have to hit first; Kike Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Christian Arroyo, and even Michael Chavis have all led off this season over Verdugo. Maybe Alex Cora just really likes second basemen since he used to play the position? Otherwise, the refusal to have Verdugo lead off makes no sense especially since he shined there last year. Anyways, he's been able to score lots of runs since he has three players who will likely be All-Stars this year behind him in J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. He hasn't played as well as he did in 2020, but he's still been a top-20 outfielder in points leagues.
Meanwhile, Betts has had a rough year, compared to expectations. One reason for this is that he's had to battle through some injuries- back stiffness, shoulder soreness, and impaired vision due to an allergic reaction. However, he's still not hitting as well as usual when he's playing, as the statistics at the beginning of this article illustrate. He's not hitting the ball hard either, as he's about average in batted ball metrics this year. This isn't to say he's been bad; he's just been disappointing so far.
Despite the lower numbers this year, Betts might be someone who fantasy managers can get value from in a trade. Other people who haven't been following Betts as closely may remember him just as the MVP, or the player who was drafted #1 overall in fantasy, and they might be willing to still give up a good return for Betts. He is someone to sell "low" on right now because his nagging injuries and unspectacular play aren't good things to have on a fantasy team right now, and managers can still get value for Betts due to his name recognition.
In terms of which team "won" the real-life Mookie Betts trade, it's obviously too early to tell. The prospects sent to Boston can also make an impact, possibly as soon as later this year, and Betts still has a decade left on his contract to re-establish himself as a superstar. But, at this point, it looks like the Red Sox are in the lead.
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The Red Sox aren't just in the lead with the Mookie Betts trade, they're also in the lead for a playoff spot. That is certainly a surprise to everyone since they were the first team to twenty losses last year, yet this year they were the first team to get twenty wins. One of the main reasons they've gotten off to a great start is the revival of J.D. Martinez. The three-time All-Star has been raking, with a .320 batting average and 12 home runs. He would be an MVP candidate- if he played defense. He's played 42 of his 52 games as the DH, and only ten games in the outfield. Nonetheless, those ten games in the outfield are extremely important in fantasy baseball because ten is the magic number to gain positional eligibility. So, his May 22 start in left field against the Phillies made J.D. Martinez an official fantasy baseball outfielder.
Obviously, being able to play the field isn't only important in real life. Players who are only eligible at DH like Shohei Ohtani (when he hits), Nelson Cruz, and Yordan Alvarez can hinder roster flexibility since they can only be placed in the Utility position. Therefore, J.D. being an outfielder will be very helpful to fantasy managers for the rest of the year, especially to be able to move around dual-eligibility players in order to compensate for the extreme amount of injuries this year. Also, normally, we think of Martinez as just being a DH, which lowers his value. But, now that he's an outfielder, is there a case to be made for him being one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game for the rest of the year?
First of all, he's definitely not the most valuable outfielder in fantasy baseball. That honor belongs to Ronald Acuña Jr. He's hitting .287 with a league-leading 17 home runs, and he has a fifteen-point lead over the next closest outfielder in default points leagues.
Who's more valuable: Ronald Acuña Jr.
The next closest outfielder is not Martinez. It's Cincinnati's Nick Castellanos. He leads the league in batting average (.361) and OPS (1.060), and he can match Martinez's 12 home runs. Despite this, he only has one fantasy point more than J.D. In addition, Martinez has more of a proven track record of consistent high batting averages and more power than Castellanos since he's hit .291 with an average of 34 HR per 162 games throughout his career, while Castellanos is at .278 and 24.
Who's more valuable: J.D. Martinez
Right behind Martinez in the fantasy points standings is Kris Bryant. The Chicago Cub has played 31 of his 51 games in the outfield, and he's hitting .317 with 12 HR and leads the league in OPS+ at 177 (which means he's played 77% better than the league average outfielder) compared to Martinez's 162 OPS+. Unlike Castellanos, the former MVP has had a proven track record of success in the past, so these statistics are legit. Martinez has been slightly luckier than Bryant (he has a higher BABIP), but Martinez has a substantially higher average exit velocity than Bryant. The deciding factor is that Kris Bryant is also a name frequently mentioned in trade rumors. The Cubs have had a top-10 offense this year in terms of batting average, OPS, and RBI, so the possibility of moving into a weaker lineup (like either New York team; both are among the worst offenses) would result in fewer runs and RBI opportunities. Due to that,
Who's more valuable: J.D. Martinez
In addition to those top performers this year, there are also other candidates who haven't accrued as many points but have high expectations, including Juan Soto. Soto has played ten fewer games, has half as many homers, and his batting average is almost forty points lower than Martinez. However, he's in the top 20% of all players in nearly every Statcast advanced metric, and he was drafted in the top five of drafts as one of the best young stars in the game.
Who's more valuable: Juan Soto
It's almost obligatory to include Mookie Betts in this since he was going #1 overall in most drafts, but I already wrote about how he's been disappointing this season. He's not playing close to the level Martinez is playing at.
Who's more valuable: J.D. Martinez
Mike Trout would have obviously been above Martinez, but he's been out for a few weeks and he'll be out for at least another month. Due to that, it's nearly impossible to say he'll have more value for the rest of the season than Martinez.
Who's more valuable: J.D. Martinez
Byron Buxton was great before he was injured, as he compiled more WAR (wins above replacement) than Martinez in half as many games. The problem is that injuries have always been a problem for Buxton; he's only played over 100 games in a season once. He's also never shown that he can be consistently as good as hitting .370 like he did in April since his career average is .247. Although he does have a huge advantage in speed, his durability and consistency are major concerns, which are not concerns for Martinez at all.
Who's more valuable: J.D. Martinez
Final Rankings:
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. Juan Soto
3. J.D. Martinez
4. Kris Bryant
5. Nick Castellanos
Due to his consistency throughout his career, there's no reason to sell on Martinez right now because there's a very good chance he'll stay in the top 5 outfielders through the end of the year. He would also cost a lot to trade for. However, this exercise just proves that J.D. Martinez has fully rebounded from his bad 2020 (partly since he can look at video in-game again), and he's among the best outfielders in the game of fantasy baseball.
All statistics are from prior to Thursday's games.
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