Midseason Predictions- HOU, TEX

HOU- The Astros will have 6 top-50 hitters in points leagues.

Houston has had the best offense in the AL by far this year, so it makes sense that their players are strong fantasy options. Carlos Correa is hitting .295 with 14 HR, 41 RBI, and 51 runs. He's currently #8 in points in ESPN standard leagues; #9 and #10 belong to teammates Yuli Gurriel and Jose Altuve. Gurriel has a career-high .325 batting average along with decent power (ten homers) and 50 RBI. Altuve has a team-high 16 home runs and a strong .293 batting average. Those three players are near-locks to stay in the top-50 barring injuries due to their strong performances to this point.

Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker sits just inside the top-25 hitters in points. He has a .268 average with 13 home runs and five steals. What's especially impressive about Tucker is his advanced statistics, for his hard-hit ball metrics, expected stats, and strikeout numbers are almost all well-above average. He's in the top-10 in the MLB for expected wOBA (an all-encompassing metric that includes the quality of contact along with strikeouts and walks), and he's third in expected batting average (.329), suggesting he's actually been unlucky. In addition, in points leagues, he's missed some time due to an illness and has fewer at-bats than his counterparts, but still ranks in the top-25 in points. Trade for Tucker with confidence, and expect at least a .290 batting average with 30+ home runs and 10-15 steals by the end of the year.

Next, #42 on the points list is Michael Brantley. He currently leads the league in batting average at .353, and his expected batting average is actually one point higher! In addition, he only has 26 strikeouts in 237 plate appearances, and his strikeout percentage (11%) and whiff percentage (11.1%) are in the top 2% leaguewide. However, unlike his companions described above, Brantley doesn't hit for power (four home runs) and he also doesn't steal bases. That's the one thing keeping him from the next level in fantasy, but his great contact skills still make it likely that he stays in the top-50 hitters.

Just outside the top-50 is Yordan Alvarez. The DH is hitting .306 with 10 home runs, although his expected batting average is 30 points lower along with a BABIP in the .330s. Despite that, his expected wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage are all in the top 20% of MLB players. One issue with his game is walks and strikeouts- when he won AL Rookie of the Year in 2019, he had a top-10% walk rate, but that walk rate has cratered this year to put him in the bottom-20% of the league. His strikeout rate has always been bad as well. So, expect a .270 batting average with 15-20 homers the rest of the way, leaving him outside the top 50 hitters in fantasy baseball.

Finally, Alex Bregman was having a good season (he's accrued four more points than Alvarez), but he landed on the injured list on Friday and will be out for "a while," according to manager Dusty Baker. He will likely not be in the top-50 hitters in points leagues since he'll miss too much time to get back in.

So, expect Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley to finish the season within the top-50 points league hitters, and expect Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman to stay out.

TEX- The Rangers will finish the season with two players in the top-100 on the Player Rater.

Texas really has four players who could conceivably finish in the top 100 players for rotisserie leagues- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adolis Garcia, Kyle Gibson, and Joey Gallo, who currently rank 18th, 22nd, 91st, and 135th respectively. Kiner-Falefa and Garcia are all but guaranteed to stay in the top 100 since their player rating is almost double the amount for players currently outside the top 100. Kiner-Falefa isn't that great as a hitter, but his base-stealing skills provide immense value in roto leagues. On the other hand, Garcia has been a surprisingly great slugger this year, as only six players have more home runs than his 18, and he also has seven steals and 49 RBI. However, he is less viable in points leagues due to his 7:1 K:BB ratio (a whopping 77 strikeouts and only 11 walks). Meanwhile, Gibson is barely hanging on to a top-100 spot, and don't expect him to keep it. His 3.54 FIP suggests that there will be some regression from his 2.14 ERA, and his 64 strikeouts in 83 innings will make it hard for him to continue his success, especially in points leagues. Finally, while Gallo does have 13 HR and leads the league in walks, his .218 batting average will make it extremely hard for him to get into the top-100. You can read more about Gallo here.

Special thanks to ESPN, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball-Savant/Statcast for statistics.