A Sad Story

Trevor Story has been unimpressive this year even though he was regarded as a top-3 shortstop coming into this year. So, what should fantasy managers do with him?

Trevor Story has been average this year. The Colorado Rockies shortstop who was usually drafted in the top-15 is hitting .256, which is slightly above the league average of .239. He has a not-great but also not-bad 28 RBI and 33 runs scored, along with great speed (13 steals). He also has only five home runs, which is below where he was expected to be.

Furthermore, in terms of advanced stats, he has an OPS+ of 96, which is 4% below the league average hitter. His BABIP is about .330, and although that shows he's been pretty lucky, he's always had a high BABIP throughout his career. His hard-hit ball rate, wOBA, and plate discipline are all average.

In terms of fantasy points, his 137 make him technically average among MLB shortstops since he has the 15th most, but that's way below his top-3 status during drafts. That's not completely his fault, since he's missed 12 games due to injury, but he's also outside the top 15 shortstops in terms of average points per game played and he's 12th on the ESPN Player Rater for rotisserie formats.

His low RBI and run totals also aren't completely his fault. While he definitely could be getting on base more, the Rockies have been atrocious. They only have one player hitting above .270 (outfielder Raimel Tapia). They only have one player with more than eight home runs (breakout star second baseman Ryan McMahon). In fact, McMahon has been their only player with at least 1.5 WAR (wins above replacement), with 2.7. Plus, the Rockies have the worst offense (by far) on the road as a team. For example, Story is hitting .312 at home and .181 on the road. Even though they do have the most runs scored at home at hitter-friendly Coors Field, that's not helpful for fantasy purposes (especially weekly leagues) when star players like Story need to be relied on no matter where they play.

The one good thing about Story for the rest of the season is that he's not trapped in Colorado. He's currently in the last year of his contract, and the Rockies are very likely to trade him (since they're not going to extend him). While it's true that some contenders that he could be traded to (like Oakland or the Yankees) have offenses that are the same or worse and that he won't get to play half his games at Coors, his RBI and runs should go up when he gets traded (but his batting average and home runs could decrease at the same time).

Due to all of this, fantasy managers should sell on Trevor Story right now. He's not helping fantasy teams that much, and his advanced stats suggest it's not going to get much better in the future. However, he still has name recognition as a star, and other fantasy managers may want to buy on him now in the hopes of his stats improving following a trade. Story could likely get back a strong return, like a "lesser" (but playing better) shortstop like Jake Cronenworth or Tommy Edman, along with another good player. He should especially be traded now (if possible) in an NL-only league because if he gets traded to an AL team, he would completely disappear from the player pool. So, now is the time to get rid of Story while he still has value since he's viewed as a star who will improve rather than the overrated, underperforming player that he has been.