This is a column that I wrote for my class on Sports Storytelling with the school of the New York Times, so it's different than my normal writing style (more opinion, less statistics, and not related to fantasy). Also, this was originally written early last week, so that was before I watched Toronto dominate the Red Sox this past weekend.
The Toronto Blue Jays went all-in at this year’s trade deadline by trading for ace Jose Berrios. However, it was a risky trade for a long shot at a championship, and they sacrificed years of future sustainability in the process.
On Friday, the Blue Jays traded for starting pitcher Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for the #15 prospect in the minor leagues (according to MLB Pipeline), Austin Martin, along with the #67 rated prospect, Simeon Woods Richardson. While others praised this move by the Blue Jays since they improved their team, I think that was a bad move for the Blue Jays because they sacrificed a considerable amount of young talent for a pitcher who is only under control through the 2022 season, and they don’t have a strong chance of winning a championship this year.
Austin Martin is one of the top young prospects in all of baseball, and he has an immense amount of value since he has a good chance of becoming a perennial All-Star. Although he is currently in Double-A, he will likely be in the MLB by next year, at the latest, and he automatically comes with six years of control on his rookie contract. Richardson also has high potential, so the Blue Jays gave up twelve combined years of low-cost control of two players who are on the path of developing into stars in exchange for less than two years of Jose Berrios.
I’m also not saying Berrios is a bad player. In fact, it’s the opposite- Berrios is one of the top pitchers in the league. He is currently 8-5 with a 3.31 ERA, and he is definitely an upgrade for the Blue Jays rotation.
Despite this, I still have two big issues with this deal. Firstly, he only has one full year of control left after this season, so he could easily walk away from Toronto after next season to a team that would be ecstatic to pay him to play for them.
The other problem is that the Blue Jays don’t have a good chance at competing for a championship this year. They are a talented team, but their talent hasn’t translated to success in terms of wins and losses. As of August 4, the Blue Jays are 7.5 games out of first place in their division, the A.L. East, and they are three games out of the second wild card spot. Even though that’s not a huge gap, I think it will be hard for the Blue Jays to pass the talented teams in front of them like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Oakland A’s.
Furthermore, in the event that the Blue Jays do make the playoffs, Berrios would be helpful as he would replace lesser pitchers like Ross Stripling or Steven Matz in Toronto’s playoff rotation, but the Blue Jays would have to make it through a gauntlet of opponents with stacked rosters to be successful. If they even get into the playoffs, the most likely scenario is that they would be greeted with a road trip for the A.L. Wild Card game- a win-or-go-home matchup against Yankees superstar Gerrit Cole, Red Sox ace Chris Sale, or Oakland All-Star Chris Bassitt.
That’s not a pretty outlook for Blue Jays fans, and that’s just the first obstacle the Blue Jays would face in their uphill battle to the World Series (where they would get crushed by the Dodgers anyways). So, since the Blue Jays championship hopes are low, Berrios isn’t going to help them reach the ultimate goal this year. For his contract year in 2022, the path will be equally as hard as the Blue Jays watch their divisional opponents get better as well.
Meanwhile, everything comes back to the price they paid for Berrios. While the Blue Jays continue their tough battle for a playoff spot, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson will be developing with the Twins’ AA affiliate, the Wichita Wind Surge. They will be key pieces of the next contending Twins team, and there’s a good chance they develop into amazing players. I think the Blue Jays will come to regret their trade for Jose Berrios, and they will wonder what they could have achieved had they waited and kept Martin and Richardson in their control rather than going all-in on a lost season.
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