When Nick Pivetta was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Boston Red Sox in 2020, no one had high hopes for him. He was traded along with prospect Connor Seabold to Boston in exchange for relief pitcher Brandon Workman, who was seen as someone who had to be traded due to his impending free agency and strong performance, and fellow reliever Heath Hembree. On a side note, Workman was terrible for the Phillies and Cubs and is currently back in Boston, and Hembree is somehow getting saves for the Reds despite his 5.14 ERA, so that trade clearly went terribly for Philadelphia. What's even worse is that Pivetta, who had a 5.50 ERA in 3 1/2 seasons with the Phillies, has been very good for the Red Sox this year.
Pivetta is currently just inside the top-40 starting pitchers after being drafted just outside the top-100 starters! In his breakout season, he's 7-3 with a 4.09 ERA (4.11 FIP). He also has 109 strikeouts, or 10.9 per inning, which is a good mark. One issue is that he has been pretty inconsistent lately, with two outings where he got negative (ESPN standard league) fantasy points by giving up six earned runs, and two outings where he combined to throw 13.2 innings while giving up two hits and striking out eighteen. He clearly has the skills to succeed, but he's just not showing it every outing.
In addition, even though it seems like he has the skills to succeed, it's possible that he's just been lucky. According to Baseball Savant, Pivetta has been average-to-below average in many important advanced categories, including exit velocity, walk rate, and chase rate. He's also giving up lots of barrels, and his whiff rate is average (which is concerning because it will be hard to continue his strikeout pace with average whiff/chase rates).
In terms of spin rate and the impact of the new foreign substance rules, Pivetta seems to be minimally impacted. Since the news first came out on June 3 about the foreign substances crackdown (correction from my article on Monday where I said it was June 15), he hasn't had any significant changes in his spin rates, just some small drops. He's lost about 20-50 RPMs on his three primary pitches, which is much lower than many others like Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish, who you can read more about here. Although he has been inconsistent since the change, fantasy managers still should not be worried about Nick Pivetta in terms of not being able to use foreign substances.
So, what should you expect from Pivetta for the rest of the season? I think he'll likely stay around his 4.09 ERA with fewer strikeouts, closer to 10 than 11 per nine innings. Although wins are out of his control, Pivetta also provides value there just because he plays on the Red Sox, who are one of the best teams in the league. Expect Pivetta to win 15 games this season. I also think that Pivetta does have potential to stay in the top-40 starters, although it will be hard. He should end up in the 35-55 range.
Overall, it does seem that Nick Pivetta's production this year is legitimate. I don't think he's going to improve, but it seems like his current pace is sustainable. Pivetta should be owned in all ten-team leagues or deeper, so add him if you can. He can be a valuable contribution to fantasy teams, and he can help bring them to the playoffs.
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