How has Kevin Gausman become a fantasy ace despite taking eight years to get there? Why is he someone you should trade for? Plus, are these young pitchers worth adding to your team?
After his poor first season, Gausman continued to pitch for the Orioles for five more years, and he was traded along with Darren O'Day to the Braves in 2018. He was subsequently dropped and claimed by the Reds off waivers the next year, after giving up 55 earned runs in 80 innings (6.19 ERA) for Atlanta in 2019. Gausman was a disappointment up to this point, a former top prospect who failed to pan out and had turned into an average player in the MLB. But, everything changed for Gausman after he signed with the San Francisco Giants in free agency before the 2020 season.
In 2020, he was finally able to put it all together. He had a 3.54 FIP (fielding independent pitching) while striking out 32% of hitters (up by 7% from 2019) and having a top-6 swinging strikeout rate at 15.4%. A big reason this change occured was because he gained over 1 mph of velocity on his fastball. He used the great year to get himself a $18.9 million qualifying offer for one year from the Giants this past offseason. And this year, he's finally lived up to the hype from his top-prospect days.
So far, Gausman has made ten starts, and he is 5-0 with a 1.53 ERA. He's striking out 10.9 batters per 9 innings, and he has a 244 ERA+ (which means he's been 144% better than the average pitcher)! He has established himself as a Cy Young contender, and has been a big reason the Giants still sit above the Dodgers in the NL West standings.
So, what does this mean for fantasy baseball? In ESPN standard leagues, Gausman has accumulated 246 points. No pitcher has scored more, as he has scored more than players like Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, and Shohei Ohtani (who gets to hit, too!). He's also the top pure starting pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater. His 2.32 FIP shows that he's due to regress some, but he should still be a top-20, or even top-10 pitcher by the end of the year.
Despite this, he's still extremely underrated. His average draft position is currently 123- and that's currently, including in-season drafters that have witnessed his success but chose to ignore it. I was talking with someone recently about Gausman, and he said, "Kevin Gausman? Isn't that the guy that was bad for the Orioles?" Many fantasy managers who haven't been following Gausman also haven't realized that he has become a legitimate fantasy baseball ace, and he's been proving that to be true for two years now.
Although he frequently went undrafted in ESPN standard leagues, it's highly unlikely that he's still a free agent in any leagues (he's rostered in 99.2% of ESPN leagues). Yet, that doesn't mean that you can't get him for a reduced price compared to his true value. People view players like Lucas Giolito, Jose Berrios, and Aaron Nola as fantasy aces, who would take a haul to trade for, but many view Gausman, who has scored about one hundred fantasy points more than those names, as an overachiever, who can't possibly keep pitching this well. They would be wrong- and if you can take advantage of that by trading for Gausman for a discount compared to his true value, that move could win you a fantasy league.
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Meanwhile, Ryan Weathers, Austin Gomber, and Cody Poteet are young arms who have shown high potential this season. Will they keep their strong starts up, and are they worth adding to your teams?
Ryan Weathers is a rookie pitcher for the San Diego Padres. He has pitched in eleven games, and six of those were starts. He's been stellar so far, giving up only five runs in 34 1/3 innings, which is a 1.31 ERA. He's given up less than one baserunner per inning, and he also has decent strikeout ability, as he's struck out twenty-seven batters so far this year. He's been used in a variety of roles, as he's made some starts, he's pitched in long relief, frequently behind the fragile Dinelson Lamet, and he has one of only three Padres' saves this season that haven't belonged to Mark Melancon. In terms of fantasy, he's scored 99 points, with two of his last four outings netting him double digit points. He definitely has upside, as he just doesn't give up hits or runs, and he has a tentative spot in the Padres' flexible rotation. However, he usually doesn't go deep into games (he threw only 78 pitches in his last start) since the Padres are extremely careful with young arms, and that lowers his possibility of getting wins.
Real or Not? Real. Although he won't keep pitching this well, he should end up as a decent option for the bottom of a fantasy depth chart, as a top-75 pitcher at the minimum. If you need help with pitching, pick Weathers up, especially in deeper/NL-only leagues, but have a short leash on him if he starts to struggle.
One of the top players returned to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Nolan Arenado, Austin Gomber is a third-year pitcher who plays home games at very hitter-friendly Coors Field. Gomber started off the year 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA (although that was inflated by a 9-run meltdown in San Francisco) during April. When the calendar turned to May, Gomber turned his season around, with a 3.15 ERA over six starts. He also never hurt his fantasy owners by earning positive fantasy points every time, and with four of the six being in double-digits. Surprisingly, he's been stellar at home (1.88 ERA in three games), while two bad starts caused his road stats to be less than ideal (5.44 ERA in eight games). He's shown that he can go deep into games, as his starts have ranged from a minimum of 64 pitches and up to 104. He also gets a decent amount of strikeouts- he struck out 7, 6, 7, 8, and 5 batters in his last five starts. However, according to Statcast, Gomber is in the lower half of the league in whiff percentage, and average in strikeout percentage and chase rate. This shows that it's unlikely Gomber develops elite strikeout skills at any point in the near future. In addition, although he's been good there so far, Coors Field is a terrible park for pitchers to play in, so Gomber already has a disadvantage since he will play about half of his games there.
Real or Not? Not. This is his third year in the major leagues, and his previous statistics also show that Gomber is just an average pitcher. He does have some potential, but he's not worth a roster spot in any relatively shallow fantasy league at this point.
Cody Poteet, a 26-year old rookie, has made four starts for the Miami Marlins this year. Excluding his most recent (and worst) start against the Boston Red Sox, Poteet has pitched seventeen innings while giving up only ten hits and two runs, along with two walks and thirteen strikeouts. That is a total of 58 fantasy points in three starts, although his season total is 56, since he got -2 after giving up five runs against Boston. Hitters against him have also had a .211 batting average on balls in play, which means Poteet has been pretty lucky. Overall, that's not much to work with, besides his 3.84 ERA with seven strikeouts per nine innings over six years in the minors. However, throughout those four starts this year, he's shown plenty of potential, with elite spin rate and walk rate despite average strikeout statistics.
Real or Not? Incomplete. His three strong starts came against average to below average offenses at the time (Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Mets), and once he finally faced an elite offense, he pitched poorly. This doesn't mean that either of those trends will continue, for we just haven't seen enough of him in the majors to make a verdict. However, his next two starts should come against Pittsburgh and home against Colorado, which are two of the best matchups a pitcher can get. Therefore, Poteet is a good streaming option for his next two starts, but he shouldn't be in starting lineups after that until he proves he can beat a good offensive team, like the Braves (if healthy) or Cubs, who he should face in a few weeks as long as he keeps his rotation spot.
Unlinked statistics came from ESPN and Baseball Reference.
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